Heir abhorrent

The first reports of a massive auto accident in Chechnya’s reconstructed capital Grozny appeared on local Telegram channel NIYSO early on Friday evening. Since then, Novaya Gazeta Europe has been able to confirm that an accident did indeed take place and that the driver of one of the vehicles was killed, though as the crash itself was not officially logged with the police, it’s highly unlikely to result in any investigation.

The authorities’ response to the incident has once again highlighted the internal balance of power in Chechnya — and Adam Kadyrov’s special status as the presumed heir.

Crash test dummy

Late on Friday afternoon, Adam Kadyrov’s motorcade was reportedly travelling at high speed through central Grozny when it collided with another car coming onto the road. According to an eyewitness who spoke to Novaya Gazeta Europe, the convoy’s lead vehicle had ignored a red light and was driving over the speed limit.

Several other vehicles in the convoy were damaged when their drivers were unable to stop in time, but the most serious impact involved the lead car that was carrying Adam Kadyrov and his three bodyguards. That vehicle was reportedly being driven by Adam Kadyrov’s security chief, Apti Iraskhanov, who is also the nephew of Chechen Interior Minister Aslan Iraskhanov.

All four men in the lead car were taken to hospital, with Iraskhanov suffering a serious neck injury, while the others — including Adam Kadyrov — sustained injuries that doctors described as not life-threatening.

Nevertheless, the immediate medical evacuation of Adam Kadyrov and his bodyguards to Moscow was arranged using a specialised medical aircraft operated by the regional Emergency Situations Ministry. Such planes are normally reserved for critically ill patients requiring life-saving care. Medical sources told Novaya Gazeta Europe that neither Kadyrov’s son nor his guards required anything like that level of intervention.

Collateral damage

As one doctor, cited by our source, put it: “Kadyrov’s son and his bodyguards were hurt more by the airbags in their expensive foreign cars than in the crash itself. The ordinary people in the car they hit at full speed were far less lucky.”

According to Novaya Europe’s sources, the driver of the car that was hit by Adam Kadyrov’s vehicle died from his injuries. Nevertheless, according to another Novaya Europe source in Chechnya’s Investigative Committee, the crash was never officially recorded in the incident log, adding that it was unlikely that a criminal case would be opened into the incident. “As always in such situations, that means there will be no investigation and no punishment.”

Road accidents involving the ruling elite are regular occurrences in Chechnya. Last summer, a fatal car crash involving Ramzan Kadyrov’s nephew, Yasin Zakriev, attracted widespread attention when a married couple were killed and their two children seriously injured. Despite the accident being public knowledge, Zakriev faced no consequences, and no criminal case was even opened.

Nor was Friday’s crash the first involving Kadyrov’s children. In 2021, Ramzan Kadyrov’s eldest son, Akhmat, then aged 16, ran over an elderly man while driving a Mercedes-Benz G-Class in the family’s ancestral village, then known as Tsentaroy, but since renamed Akhmat-Yurt in honour of Ramzan Kadyrov’s father. The authorities quickly arranged a traditional “reconciliation” ceremony, paid compensation to the victim’s family, and did their best to ensure the incident never left the village.

In September 2022, Adam Kadyrov — then himself 15 — was involved in a car crash in which two people were killed. According to one source, Adam had been driving, but was moved into another vehicle to conceal that fact. Extraordinarily, Adam then attempted to flee the scene at high speed, striking and killing another person at a pedestrian crossing.

Chechnya consistently records some of the highest road-death rates in Russia. A significant share of these fatalities involve members of the local elite and their children. Road accident deaths have become the most common cause of premature death for senior Chechen officials — the result of reckless driving combined with total impunity.

Heirs and spares

The decision to airlift Adam Kadyrov to Moscow after his most recent car accident despite him requiring only basic medical treatment, has proven a useful indicator of Ramzan Kadyrov’s succession plan, and, in particular, his obvious fear of losing what he sees as his most valuable asset: a son to whom he hopes to bestow dynastic power.

Kadyrov’s own well-documented health issues have significantly worsened over the past year, to the point where he has largely ceased to be involved in the day-to-day running of the republic. Despite having two other adult sons who are older than Adam — 20-year-old Akhmat, whom he recently appointed acting deputy prime minister of Chechnya, and 19-year-old Zelimkhan — Kadyrov doesn’t appear to view either as successor material.

Sources close to Kadyrov and within the regional security apparatus describe Akhmat as “the most intelligent and humane” of the three sons. “People often write that he has developmental issues or mental illness — that isn’t true,” one source said. “He has a severe fear of public speaking, but intellectually he outstrips his brothers. He plays chess well, has an excellent memory, studied reasonably well, and seems to be the only one who actually finished school rather than merely receiving a certificate.”

However, it’s likely that what the source called Akhmat’s “lack of cruelty and ambition” was a crucial factor in him being overlooked for the top job. “He was unable to prove himself in acts of violence — something Kadyrov’s children, like the children of his closest allies, are exposed to from an early age.”

Akhmat’s recent appointment as Chechnya’s acting deputy prime minister doesn’t appear to signal a change in Ramzan Kadyrov’s succession plans, however, and is now understood by analysts to have been a decision taken due to a lack of any other suitable candidates, after Kadyrov’s eldest daughter Aishat’s decision to resign from the post last year in to devote more time to her fashion business.

Zelimkhan, by contrast, is described in far darker terms. His mother, Fatima Khazuyeva, is often referred to as Kadyrov’s second wife. “He’s a genuine brute, capable of anything to gain power,” said a source familiar with the Khazuyev family. “In that sense, he resembles his cousin Khamzat Kadyrov — Ramzan’s uncontrollable nephew.

Both were effectively expelled from the family and from the country this year for their behaviour. They now live in the UAE and are forbidden from returning to Chechnya without Ramzan Kadyrov’s permission.”

Despite being the third son, Adam Kadyrov is widely seen not only as Kadyrov’s favourite but as “a blunt instrument in his father’s hands”, and, most importantly perhaps, “someone in whom Kadyrov sees himself”.

“If we’re honest,” the source added, “Kadyrov has been luckier with his daughters than his sons. His daughters are more mature, pragmatic, calculating and developed — less infantile. That’s typical of modern Chechnya, where boys are indulged and forgiven far more than girls.”